He has 17 years experience selling real estate all over the Twin Cities, and is a perennial member of Edina Realty’s “Leadership Circle,” awarded to the company’s top 5% in sales volume. But, that doesn’t mean broad sentiment indicators aren’t relevant for forecasting market moves. and Mine, "Will You Cut Your Commission?" . Ross Kaplan is a Realtor in Edina Realty’s City Lakes (Minneapolis) office. Shoeshine boys and girls scenting the economic turmoil ahead have become the latest economic indicators in the City. By then, not surprisingly, most of that era’s erstwhile bearishness had given way to enthusiasm and euphoria. In the last two months Keith Stevens, managing director of The Traditional Victorian Shoeshine Company, has seen the average pin-stripe getting his shoes cleaned only once a week instead of twice. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. All the same, it seems as though everyone had a good laugh, and the headline by CNBC might be an indication that the whole thing was set up for just this purpose. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of equities.com. If we believe. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. This happened a few months before the crash of 1929. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer. Of course less (if any) mention was made of the possibility that some of these comedians had confused Kunis with some of the dingy/aloof teen and twentysomething characters she often portrays on the screen. . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr. Joe Kennedy reportedly said in 1929 that he knew it was time to get out of the market when the shoeshine boys were giving stock tips. Over the last six months of the bull market that ended in March 2000, for example, the Nasdaq doubled in value. Insights and commentary about the Twin Cities real estate market - and the occasional "macro musing" - from a top local Realtor, May 27, 2016 By Ross Kaplan Leave a Comment. Ever since, the shoeshine boy has been the metaphor for "time to get out"; for the end of the mania phase in which everyone, even the shoeshine boy, wants in. Indeed, it can be considered a leading economic indicator, with skirt lengths a lagging indicator. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. and it was (high) time to get out. Koon Yew Yin. http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm, http://metro.co.uk/2017/11/27/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-in-bitcoin-value-just-shot-up-again-7113222/, http://www.liberation.fr/futurs/2017/11/29/le-bitcoin-un-mystere-monetaire-planetaire_1613465, #bitcoin #bank #cryptocurrency #shoeshine #indicator #joeKennedy #short #markets #stocks #JFK, Sébastien Van Passel |sebastien@4investors.eu  |+32.470.369.636 | Belgium. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. Just before the 1929 crash, Joseph Kennedy (father of President John F.) was supposed to have dumped all his stocks because a Wall Street shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips. They don’t pander to scaremongering or hysteria’. Fashion’s real economic indicator is nail polish. Staying in our home after gifting it to son ... and keeping peace with other children, ‘After homeschooling, the stock market might be more manageable’, Expanded help-to-buy scheme makes little sense and may fuel house price rises, Stocktake: A narrow rally is a fragile rally. Of course, that’s what happens when central banks around the world flood the markets with $14 trillion in liquidity, crushing bond yields and forcing everyone into riskier assets to chase yield. THIS CO MIGHT RECEIVE A REVISED PRIVATIZATION OFFER AS THE CURRENT OFFER IS WAY BELOW NTA !!! Many investors are no doubt familiar with the “Shoeshine Boy Indicator”. In truth, Kennedy was a consummate insider who knew full well how frothy the market had become — in large part due to manipulations by insiders such as himself** — and sold to avoid the inevitable carnage. The S & P 500 also fell just shy of its record for the second consecutive day, losing 0.16 percent to end the day at 1,560.70 points. This name will appear beside any comments you post. Kennedy was amused and intrigued and encouraged him to go ahead. So, Who Pays For That Post-Closing Special Assessment -- the Buyer or Seller? The New York Stock Exchange. Copyright © 2007-2020 Ross Kaplan. Here’s a winning solution for our challenging times, Employers can ease employee concerns by prioritising their wellbeing, Cliff Taylor: Jobs in the firing line as the country moves to Level 5, Google's incredible power is the result of decades of regulatory failure, What to consider if older person or loved one needs care at home, Retailers accused of ‘stealing business’ from rivals by flouting restrictions, In praise of Gogglebox Ireland, an essential service in all but name, ‘French people are pretty relaxed. Home Marketing on MLS: “Beautiful Backyard, 1+ Acre, Butterfly Garden” (“Butterfly Garden?! He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash: "Taxi drivers told you what to buy. Will stock prices fall off the cliff under the weight of enormous popularity? How long can Government afford to keep State pension age at 66? . Are we witnessing something similar today? ?”), Bike Portaging (Huh?!?) on the Mississippi River, Donna Tartt’s (and Carel Fabritius’) “The Goldfinch”: a Review, Why Homes That Sell in Multiple Offers Should Always Appraise, And Repeat: "Never Negotiate Furniture," "Never Negotiate Furniture. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. "Distressed Jeans" -- Their Definition . So ask advices to professionals in order to avoid the Shoeshine boy (bad) experience ! Top 10 Replies, "Get Me Out of the Deal! DISCLOSURE: It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. When you have reset your password, you can, Please choose a screen name. Canadian Oil Sands Limited. Contrarian Indicator(s):  Retail Investors (aka “Dumb Money”). It seems that the 50 SMA is acting as serious resistance. The Nasdaq also fell, by 0.30 percent to close at 3,249.07, though it had the help of Apple's (AAPL)  2.6 percent gain to close at $443.66. The day’s disappointment has already been attributed other more credible factors such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) being told yesterday by the Fed to rework their share distribution plan. Please subscribe to sign in to comment. The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. Learn how your comment data is processed. Required fields are marked *. Koon Yew Yin, Why do 80% of Investors Lose Money? The story took place in 1929 : Joseph Patrick "Joe" Kennedy, Sr. JFK's father, claimed that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market when he got investment tips from a shoeshine boy. ChloeTai   |    Publish date: Mon, 15 Jan 2018, 12:54 PM, JOE KENNEDY (the father of former president John F. Kennedy), a famous rich guy in his days, exited the stock market in a timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. Batnick notes contrarians were also laughing when actress Mila Kunis announced in 2013 that she was investing in stocks. Almost a century after Kennedy’s time, there are no more shoeshine boys. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW? He had already made a fortune in the bull market, and reportedly augmented it later by going short in the bear market. This Tech + Glove (combo) stock will soon explode and rise. Kennedy sold all his stock market investments over the next several months and put the money in what he considered the safest banks. JP Morgan Chase & Co. Username and password do not match or you do not have an account yet. Looking at the current market conditions, US stock market is poised for a great crash of 2018 & in addition to this a legendary investor Warren Buffett has his take on the current market condition. Aaron . So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. Does this set of indicators help with interpreting silver and/or gold? Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929.". Please enter your email address so we can send you a link to reset your password.